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Asset allocation accounted for 91.6% of a portfolio's investment return. Other factors such as investment selection and market timing only accounted for 8.4% of the return.
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Punit Sethia is the founder of Apaarr Global Advisory. It is a Financial Advisory boutique built to deliver unbiased, ethical and fiduciary financial solutions.
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Last fortnightly’s note – Apaarr Notes 8 highlighted the signs of exhaustion in the bull market and we experienced a sea of red in a span of 4 days. Though we mentioned that we may head sub 11000 on Nifty and Nasdaq was weakening. The speed of this move down to 10800 from 11500 was really astonishing to us too. The upsurge back to 11400 is not sustainable and it will move down most probably. We anticipate that a new cycle of large swings will get funded in the coming weeks. In this process, funds move into new asset classes and move out of some other asset class, and then we have a fresh trend.
In the equities segment, the fortnightly battle was won by the bulls with reasonable gains, but it has not passed without solid counter by the bears. It will be interesting to see how the coming weeks shape up with no major event in place. Precious metals are the one where we had phenomenon selloff and a rally from the lower end but it all happened in a snap of time.
By now you would have got a fair idea on how we deal with financial markets, being prepared is the key. We believe in covering every important asset class from all time frames, impactful markets across the world, geopolitical actions and actions of major central banks. Whichever asset class gives high conviction and best risk-reward ratio, we like to have a higher allocation towards it till the macroeconomic undercurrent supports the movement and risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Safe heaven market (precious metals) and risk-on market (equities) both trading higher at the same time is a deadly and rare occurrence. We had been advising clients to be overweight on precious metals and historic highs had been rewarding, especially the mining stocks on overseas exchanges gained good percentages.
The action shifted in the last few weeks to China for various reasons. Chinese markets have rallied beyond expectations of any investment analyst in the world. Let’s look into what this rally of 14% in two weeks on Chinese Index has done for the Chinese stock market through comparative charts of US and Indian Indices.
With the act of buying corporate bonds is the news of the past, we need to look forward to what’s next in line. Such massive debt push by the US Fed reminds me of the work of world-renowned Dr Elisabeth Kübler-Ross (July 8, 1926 – August 24, 2004), who introduced the theory of stages of grief through Kubler-Ross Model
Dow rallied 800 plus points on Friday on the back of shockingly positive US employment data. Dow had longest 50 days rally in the history in one of the worst economic, health and socio-political environment. This rally has triggered FOMO (Fear of missing out) emotions and which would have forced many investors to jump the bandwagon.